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Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Pyrite Stockpilers Still Sitting Pretty

I've been reading a bit around the gold blogging community about the new epic gem news.  I'm skeptical that the sources that have been announced thus far will remain the only sources; after two expansions when epic gems were available to anyone why would they suddenly make them so much more difficult to obtain?  I can see if they wanted to keep the content from being instantly nerfed by a bunch of epic gems, but they didn't list that as a reason, they say they want everyone to feel like they got an individual reward.  I anticipate that if this does go live as the only source of epic gems the torrential rain of QQ will be of epic proportions due to what they have tailored the playerbase to expect.  More on that some other time though.


OH NO, ALL MY STOCKPILING DOWN THE DRAIN.


I want to talk about Pyrite.  Now, I didn't stockpile Pyrite. No, I'm not here to say "Haha, don't you wish you were in the same boat?"  God, I wish I had a stockpile of cheap pyrite from pre-bot-banning.  Some bloggers are now saying that it was stupid to stockpile pyrite based on speculation, but this is completely wrong, and I'll be glad to tell you why.

I am a stockpiler of Widgets.  Widgets currently have no use in game other than to take up bank space.  However, word on the street is Widgets will likely be a source of Doodads in the future! So I buy up all the Widgets I can, hoping to make a fortune off of Doodads.  This would be a risk, and reflection would show it being a poor decision if the Widgets did not end up producing Doodads because I have no fallback use for my now-useless Widgets.

Now let's say I am a stockpiler of Pyrite Ore.   Unlike widgets, Pyrite Ore has many uses, and very profitable ones at that.  You can sell it raw, as bars, as weapon chains, as belt buckles, or transmute it into Truegold. You can use it as a good source of Volatile Earth for your belt buckles or prospect it for rare gems. You can trade it for blacksmithing patterns, you can even make pretty pictures in your guild bank with its rainbow colors!

Pyrite would have been a risky investment if it would only have one speculative use. However, the reason I've always considered it a safe investment was that it has so many fallback use possibilities, including the high-demand item of belt buckles and blue quality gems. (Remember, if epic gems are going to be particularly rare, as stated, people will still need a lot of Inferno Rubies!)

Anyone who sells their Pyrite Ore stock at this point is foolish, please don't think your incredibly valuable ore is now worthless because one of its many uses seems unlikely now. (That said, if you see people foolish enough to dump their stock consider picking it up. Players always need more belt buckles!)

8 comments:

  1. Faid the point your missing is that the only reason pyrite ore was so high is people were stockpiling it in anticipation of prospecting epic gems from it.

    Ghostcrawler specifically mentioned they expect it take a whole patch cycle for someone to replace all his gems with epic gems. That certainly wouldn't be the case if gems could be mass produced with prospecting.

    The demand for pyrite and it's price has been artificially held up by stockpilers who now longer have a reason to continue overpaying for it. The price is dropping already, will drop further and things will snowball from there. Pyrite will crash and people like me will buy it up. Some pyrite will get prospected which will cause a drop in rare gem price which in turn will cause drop in elementium and obsidium prices.

    Eventually it'll hit rock bottom, prices will start to rebound somewhat and people like me will start making big profits on all the stuff they snapped up when it was cheap.

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  2. @MoxNix: I must point out that the prices I'm talking about are probably not the prices most people have been paying. Since I never really stockpiled Pyrite the last time I really looked at the price of it was back when the bots were in full swing and pyrite was hitting 60g/stack on my server.

    Even if stockpilers do regurgitate their pyrite upon the AH I don't anticipate it going as low as 60/stack anytime soon, and as such I feel that a stockpile, if 'piled at the right time (60/stack days,) was still a good investment.

    I see what you're saying about the artificially high prices because of stockpiling; I guess I just assumed anyone who was stockpiling it was buying at "guaranteed profit" prices, since that's the only way I stock pile. Then again, I'm not your average stockpiler. (One iota of risk? NO THANK YOU GOOD SIR!)

    So I definitely see what you mean, great point.

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  3. I have always been a fan of stockpiling both doodads and widgets, as well as the occasional whatsamajigger (those will be in huge demand soon), so I agree with your reasoning.

    And you are right, who doesn't like opening bank tabs and seeing the Rainbow of Flavor of this delicious Skittle of WoW?

    Whaaaat? Y U No Like Skiddles?

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  4. Pyrite runs between 150-199g per stack on my server. As of yesterday it tanked to under 100g per stack, which would make it a great buy for the other items that are craftable with Pyrite Ore.

    The problem is that with all of the Pyrite Ore stockpiling and players starting to unload their Pyrite Ores, all of the secondary markets that can be used as a "safe out" are all crashing too.

    As more and more players learn of the news that epic gems will not come from the fool's gold, the prices will continue to crash even further in the primary (ore) and secondary markets (bars, buckles, gems, etc.)

    Even Inferno Ruby cuts are already down to 50% of the weekend prices. I typically sell my cut Inerno Rubies for 150-199g easy. Day one of the announcement and all of the red gems are flooded down to 87-99 gold each and dropping fast.

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  5. WoW i need to change server! my Pyrite ore prices never go over 100g a stack. Im sitting on 5 guild bank tabs of it that I got for 60g a stack. Personally ill be sitting on it till 4.3 then ill re evaluate whats happening with raids etc.

    @Cold 150-200g per inferno! is that with you artificiality keeping them that high or is that the normal price? on Mondays inferno ruby's drop to 50g on my server and sit around 70-100 raid days sometimes hitting 120 just after raids.

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  6. My server Pyrite has been sitting around 175g/stack. I stockpiled some (only 1 gb tab) in the botting days when I could pick it up for as cheap as 60g/stack. If stockpiling pyrite for epic gem speculation was a high risk, given the recent revelations, it is now become an unacceptable risk to hold onto it now. I have already liquidated 30% of my stock in one night, and got good prices for them. I am betting many that are panicking will completely forget about the floor value of pyrite and drive the price into the ground, presenting another opportunity.

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  7. @Cold: I guess this is a classic story of "no two servers are the same."

    The Tale of Two Servers CLICK ZEE GRAPH.

    I can defintely see what you're talking about. Your Pyrite Ore hasn't been as erratic as mine but close to it, but in the past few days the price was definitely a bit high, while taking a pretty big dive yesterday. And look at that freakin quantity available spike, holy shit you weren't kidding. xD

    Look at my server as well, however. Our pricing has always been rather erratic but currently it's about average, even after yesterday's postings. Our quantity available suffers from the same erratic behavior, but is pretty in-line with what I expect for Argent Dawn. :( (For the record, I've not touched Pyrite in months! I take no responsibility.)

    So people on your server are definitely getting the backlash of this announcement while people on my server probably haven't noticed much of a change at all. (Granted, this could definitely be a calm before a storm.) Check out the server I played on in BC. Damn, that's some stability.

    Also, I think it's important to not judge Inferno Rubies on the current prices. Of course the price is down: There's an increased supply with no noticeable increase in demand. They'll spike in 4.3 when everyone is getting new gear yet no one can get enough epic gems.

    @Dennis: If I'm reading this right, are you saying you're selling your pyrite now at a decent rate, but would consider regaining a stockpile at a lower rate when the price crashes even more. Damn, that's clever. :o

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  8. @Bigroons

    No nurturing whatsoever on gems, I play on a plate DPS and Hunter heavy server, so demand is always high for +str and +agi.

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