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Monday, February 21, 2011

An Exercise in Self Control

Delicious long-weekend goodness.  Alto gave a great run-down of why any weekend, and particularly long weekends, are an interesting time in the market, particularly for buying materials.

On some servers material prices tend to rise since so many more people are around that are using them. On others, including mine, the mats prices drop because everyone puts on their farming face and gets busy.  I've always known this but didn't really take advantage of it. It was enough for me to buy when prices were under a certain threshold and immediately turn around and sell. (Not flipping; crafting items then selling.)

Now, though, I'm trying to refine my ways.  While browsing other people's blog rolls this weekend I came across Power Word: Gold, a blog I was previously unaware of.  I really liked the first post I read which basically summed up my attitude towards buying items.  I'm always ridiculously cautious about single large purchases, or buying bulk of crafting materials.  I just worry a market will bottom out and I'll be stuck with a bad deal.  As soon as I buy, say, 20k in volatiles and ore I'm frantic to get it sold and turn a profit, just to prove to myself it wasn't a bad deal.

Well, today I did just happen to buy 20k in volatiles and elementium/pyrite ore.  I prospected all the elementium since I had plenty of bars stocked up on Faid while I smelted the pyrite to make belt buckles.  My first move was to check the AH for cut gem prices since I ended up with a great deal of blue quality gems.

Unfortunately cut gems were selling for about 60% of their value a few days ago; as were most of the crafted PvP sets that I sell.  There's just too many people in the markets this weekend I think.  So, rather than flipping now for a thin profit, I'm going to try something I've always known was best but never did. I'm going to sit on my materials and sell them later in the week when the prices rise.

I'm staring at the chunk missing out of my gold stores, but telling myself, as I rock back and forth in fear, that the gold will come back in a few days.

1 comment:

  1. It really is a double-edged sword. I have almost 2 bank tabs full of Whiptail I farmed during Herbapalooza and also picked up something like 53 stacks of Heartblossom this weekend for 3g ea.

    I am holding onto the Heartblossom to use for Infero Ruby xmutes. As for the Whiptail I'm holding onto it in case the price for herbs to make lower glyph inks ever get too expensive. (Having a large stable of crafting alts makes us much more resilient and able to adapt.)

    As long as I have a good reason (at least in my own mind) for holding onto something it makes me sleep a little better at night.

    Watching the markets lately though I think we are seeing the bottom of the herb market and any markets that rely on it and I'm not sure what could make it perk back up. (I'd love to be wrong though.)

    The question we have to start asking ourselves is how to we continue to make a profit even in this world of much flatter profit curves. Maybe we need to go wide (more items with less profit per item) rather then tall (fewer items with more profit per item).
    Something to think about.

    Great post as always! -flux (from Power Word: Gold)


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